Climatology
nader pir moradian; hossein hadinia; afshin Ashrafzadeh
Abstract
Abstract Prediction and evaluation of meteorological data in effect of climate change is very important especially in water resources management. LARS is a model that generates weather data and predicts weather parameters by downscaling global circulation models (GCM). In this study, in order to evaluate ...
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Abstract Prediction and evaluation of meteorological data in effect of climate change is very important especially in water resources management. LARS is a model that generates weather data and predicts weather parameters by downscaling global circulation models (GCM). In this study, in order to evaluate 15 GCM models performance in simulating the minimum and maximum temperature, radiation and precipitation in Rasht synoptic station (2011-2012), statistical downscaling of each model was performed by LARS model. Then, the mentioned data were predicted on the basis selected GCM models for 2013-2042 and 2043-2072 periods. The results showed that the highest increase in annual average of minimum and maximum temperature will occur during the 2043-2072 periods with 1.3 and 2.0 °C, under A2 scenario, respectively. The amounts of radiation will decrease in future periods for all seasons. The highest decrease (143.4 MJ m-2) of radiation will occur in 2013-2042periods in winter under A2 scenario. The seasonal precipitation will often increase in future periods. The highest increase of seasonal precipitation (55.5 mm) will occur under B1 scenario in 2043-2072 periods for autumn.
